Shanghai Vithy Successfully Co-Hosts the China International Nickel & Cobalt Industry Forum 2024: Insights and Filtration Applications

I. Introduction

The nickel and cobalt industry is a vital component of the non-ferrous sector, experiencing positive growth in recent years. As environmental changes, such as climate change, take center stage, nickel plays a crucial role in clean energy technologies, particularly in new energy batteries. However, the industry faces several challenges, including a domestic shortage of nickel and cobalt resources, significant price fluctuations in the global nickel and cobalt market, increasing competition within the industry, and the prevalence of global trade barriers.

 

Today, the transition to low-carbon energy has become a global focus, drawing increasing attention to key metals like nickel and cobalt. As the global nickel and cobalt industry landscape evolves rapidly, the impact of policies from countries in Europe and North America on the new energy sector is becoming increasingly evident. The China International Nickel & Cobalt Industry Forum 2024 was held from October 29 to 31 in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China. This forum aims to promote healthy and orderly development in the global nickel and cobalt industry through extensive communication and collaboration during the event. As a co-host of this conference, Shanghai Vithy Filter System Co., Ltd. is pleased to share insights and introduce filtration applications relevant to the industry.

 

 

II. Insights from the Nickel and Cobalt Forum

 

1. Nickel and Cobalt Lithium Insights

(1) Cobalt: The recent surge in copper and nickel prices has led to increased investment and capacity release, resulting in a short-term oversupply of cobalt raw materials. The outlook for cobalt prices remains pessimistic, and preparations should be made for a potential bottoming out in the coming years. In 2024, the global cobalt supply is expected to exceed demand by 43,000 tons, with a projected surplus of over 50,000 tons in 2025. This oversupply is primarily driven by rapid capacity growth on the supply side, stimulated by rising copper and nickel prices since 2020, which has encouraged the development of copper-cobalt projects in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and nickel hydrometallurgical projects in Indonesia. Consequently, cobalt is being produced in abundance as a byproduct.

 

Cobalt consumption is anticipated to recover in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.6%, primarily driven by the recovery in 3C (computer, communication, and consumer electronics) demand and an increase in the proportion of nickel-cobalt ternary batteries. However, growth is expected to slow to 3.4% in 2025 due to shifts in the technology route for new energy vehicle batteries, leading to an oversupply of cobalt sulfate and resulting in losses for companies. The price gap between metallic cobalt and cobalt salts is widening, with domestic metallic cobalt production rapidly increasing to 21,000 tons, 42,000 tons, and 60,000 tons in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, reaching a capacity of 75,000 tons. The oversupply is shifting from cobalt salts to metallic cobalt, indicating potential for further price declines in the future. Key factors to watch in the cobalt industry include geopolitical influences on resource supply, transportation disruptions affecting raw material availability, production halts in nickel hydrometallurgical projects, and low cobalt prices stimulating consumption. The excessive price gap between cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate is expected to normalize, and low cobalt prices may boost consumption, particularly in rapidly growing sectors such as artificial intelligence, drones, and robotics, suggesting a bright future for the cobalt industry.

 

 

(2) Lithium: In the short term, lithium carbonate may experience a boost in price due to macroeconomic sentiment, but the overall upside potential is limited. Global lithium resource production is projected to reach 1.38 million tons LCE in 2024, a 25% year-on-year increase, and 1.61 million tons LCE in 2025, an 11% increase. Africa is expected to contribute nearly one-third of the incremental growth in 2024, with an increase of approximately 80,000 tons LCE. Regionally, Australian lithium mines are projected to produce about 444,000 tons LCE in 2024, with an increase of 32,000 tons LCE, while Africa is expected to produce around 140,000 tons LCE in 2024, potentially reaching 220,000 tons LCE in 2025. Lithium production in South America is still ramping up, with growth rates of 20-25% expected for salt lakes in 2024-2025. In China, lithium resource production is estimated at approximately 325,000 tons LCE in 2024, a 37% year-on-year increase, and is expected to reach 415,000 tons LCE in 2025, with growth slowing to 28%. By 2025, salt lakes may surpass lithium mica as the largest source of lithium supply in the country. The supply-demand balance is expected to continue expanding from 130,000 tons to 200,000 tons and then to 250,000 tons LCE from 2023 to 2025, with a significant narrowing of the surplus anticipated by 2027.

 

The cost of global lithium resources is ranked as follows: salt lakes < overseas lithium mines < domestic mica mines < recycling. Due to the close correlation between waste prices and spot prices, costs are more dependent on upstream black powder and used battery prices. In 2024, global lithium salt demand is expected to be around 1.18-1.20 million tons LCE, with a corresponding cost curve of 76,000-80,000 yuan/ton. The 80th percentile cost is around 70,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by relatively high-grade domestic mica mines, African lithium mines, and some overseas mines. Some companies have halted production due to price declines, and if prices rebound above 80,000 yuan, these companies may quickly resume production, leading to increased supply pressure. Although some overseas lithium resource projects are progressing slower than expected, the overall trend remains one of continuous expansion, and the global oversupply situation has not been reversed, with high domestic inventory continuing to constrain rebound potential.

 

2. Market Communication Insights

Production schedules for November have been revised upward compared to post-October holidays, with some differentiation in production among lithium iron phosphate factories. Leading lithium iron phosphate manufacturers maintain high capacity utilization, while ternary enterprises have seen a slight decline in production of about 15%. Despite this, sales of lithium cobalt oxide and other products have rebounded, and orders have not shown significant decline, leading to an overall optimistic demand outlook for domestic cathode material manufacturers in November.

 

The market consensus on the bottom for lithium prices is around 65,000 yuan/ton, with an upper range of 85,000-100,000 yuan/ton. The downside potential for lithium carbonate prices appears limited. As prices drop, market willingness to purchase spot goods increases. With a monthly consumption of 70,000-80,000 tons and a surplus inventory of around 30,000 tons, the presence of numerous futures traders and traders makes it easy to digest this surplus. Additionally, under relatively optimistic macroeconomic conditions, excessive pessimism is unlikely.

 

 

The recent weakness in nickel is attributed to the fact that RKAB’s 2024 quotas can only be used up by the end of the year, and any unused quotas cannot be carried over to next year. By the end of December, nickel ore supply is expected to ease, but new pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical projects will come online, making it difficult to achieve a relaxed supply situation. Coupled with LME prices being at recent lows, the premiums for nickel ore have not widened due to supply easing, and premiums are declining.

 

Regarding long-term contract negotiations for next year, with nickel, cobalt, and lithium prices all at relatively low levels, cathode manufacturers generally report discrepancies in long-term contract discounts. Battery manufacturers continue to impose “unachievable tasks” on cathode manufacturers, with lithium salt discounts at 90%, while feedback from lithium salt manufacturers indicates that discounts are more commonly around 98-99%. At these absolute low price levels, the attitudes of upstream and downstream players are relatively calm compared to the same period last year, without excessive bearishness. This is especially true for nickel and cobalt, where the integration ratio of nickel smelting plants is increasing, and the external sales of MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) are highly concentrated, giving them significant bargaining power. At current low prices, upstream suppliers are choosing not to sell, while considering starting to quote when LME nickel rises above 16,000 yuan. Traders report that the MHP discount for next year is 81, and nickel sulfate manufacturers are still operating at a loss. In 2024, nickel sulfate costs may rise due to high raw material prices (waste and MHP).

 

3. Expected Deviations

The year-on-year growth in demand during the “Golden September and Silver October” period may not be as high as the “Golden March and Silver April” period earlier this year, but the tail end of the November peak season is indeed lasting longer than expected. The domestic policy of replacing old electric vehicles with new ones, along with orders from overseas large-scale storage projects, has provided dual support for the tail end of lithium carbonate demand, while the demand for lithium hydroxide remains relatively weak. However, caution is needed regarding changes in orders for power batteries after mid-November.

 

 

Pilbara and MRL, which have a high proportion of free market sales, have released their Q3 2024 reports, indicating cost-cutting measures and reduced production guidance. Interestingly, Pilbara plans to close the Ngungaju project on December 1, prioritizing the development of the Pilgan plant. During the last complete cycle of lithium prices from 2015 to 2020, the Altura project was launched in October 2018 and ceased operations in October 2020 due to cash flow issues. Pilbara acquired Altura in 2021 and named the project Ngungaju, planning to restart it in phases. After three years of operation, it is now set to close for maintenance. Beyond high costs, this decision reflects a proactive reduction in production and costs in light of the established low lithium price. The balance between lithium prices and supply has quietly shifted, and maintaining usage at a price point is a result of weighing pros and cons.

 

4. Risk Warning

Continued unexpected growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, unexpected mine production cuts, and environmental incidents.

 

III. Applications of Nickel and Cobalt

Nickel and cobalt have a wide range of applications across various industries. Here are some of the key application areas:

 

1. Battery Manufacturing

 

(1) Lithium-Ion Batteries: Nickel and cobalt are essential components of the cathode materials in lithium-ion batteries, widely used in electric vehicles (EVs) and portable electronic devices such as smartphones and laptops.

(2) Solid-State Batteries: Nickel and cobalt materials also have potential applications in solid-state batteries, enhancing energy density and safety.

 

 

2. Alloy Manufacturing

 

(1) Stainless Steel: Nickel is a crucial element in the production of stainless steel, improving its corrosion resistance and strength.

(2) High-Temperature Alloys: Nickel-cobalt alloys are used in aerospace and other high-temperature applications due to their excellent heat resistance and strength.

 

3. Catalysts

Chemical Catalysts: Nickel and cobalt serve as catalysts in certain chemical reactions, applied in petroleum refining and chemical synthesis.

 

4. Electroplating

Electroplating Industry: Nickel is used in electroplating to enhance the corrosion resistance and aesthetics of metal surfaces, widely applied in automotive, home appliances, and electronic products.

 

5. Magnetic Materials

Permanent Magnets: Cobalt is used to manufacture high-performance permanent magnets, which are extensively used in motors, generators, and sensors.

 

6. Medical Devices

Medical Equipment: Nickel-cobalt alloys are utilized in certain medical devices to improve corrosion resistance and biocompatibility.

 

7. New Energy

Hydrogen Energy: Nickel and cobalt act as catalysts in hydrogen energy technologies, facilitating hydrogen production and storage.

 

IV. Application of Solid-Liquid Separation Filters in Nickel and Cobalt Processing

Solid-liquid separation filters play a crucial role in nickel and cobalt production, particularly in the following areas:

 

1. Ore Processing

(1) Pre-Treatment: During the initial processing stage of nickel and cobalt ores, solid-liquid separation filters are used to remove impurities and moisture from the ore, enhancing the efficiency of subsequent extraction processes.

(2) Concentration: Solid-liquid separation technology can concentrate valuable metals from the ore, reducing the burden on further processing.

 

2. Leaching Process

(1) Leachate Separation: In the leaching process of nickel and cobalt, solid-liquid separation filters are employed to separate the leachate from undissolved solid minerals, ensuring effective recovery of extracted metals in the liquid phase.

(2) Improving Recovery Rates: Efficient solid-liquid separation can enhance the recovery rates of nickel and cobalt, minimizing resource waste.

3. Electrowinning Process

(1) Electrolyte Treatment: During the electrowinning of nickel and cobalt, solid-liquid separation filters are used to treat the electrolyte, removing impurities to ensure the stability of the electrowinning process and the purity of the product.

(2) Sludge Treatment: The sludge generated after electrowinning can be processed using solid-liquid separation technology to recover valuable metals.

 

4. Wastewater Treatment

(1) Environmental Compliance: In the nickel and cobalt production process, solid-liquid separation filters can be utilized for wastewater treatment, removing solid particles and pollutants to meet environmental regulations.

(2) Resource Recovery: By treating wastewater, useful metals can be recovered, further enhancing resource utilization.

 

5. Product Refining

Separation in Refining Processes: During the refining of nickel and cobalt, solid-liquid separation filters are used to separate refining liquids from solid impurities, ensuring the quality of the final product.

 

 

 

6. Technological Innovation

Emerging Filtration Technologies: The industry is focusing on new solid-liquid separation technologies, such as membrane filtration and ultrafiltration, which can improve separation efficiency and reduce energy consumption.

 

V. Introduction to Vithy Filters

In the field of high-precision self-cleaning filtration, Vithy offers the following products:

 

1. Microporous Cartridge Filter 

l Micron Range: 0.1-100 micron

l Filter Elements: Plastic (UHMWPE/PA/PTFE) powder sintered cartridge; metal (SS316L/Titanium) powder sintered cartridge

l Features: Automatic self-cleaning, filter cake recovery, slurry concentration